After communism and capitalism, there is asterism.

Sunday, July 24, 2005

Axis of Oil 4 - The State of Peak Oil

Stirling Newbury over at BopNews made another of his excellent summaries:

To recap the state of Peak Oil

  1. The peak of all petroleum production is likely in the 15 to 30 year time frame.
  2. The demand problem means that regardless of the production curve, oil will be in short supply that entire time.
  3. The quality of oil is going to drop, and the peak of light oil is much closer.

This is leading to another factor: a drive to control oil strategically, by the Chinese and by the Europeans. Rather than the current market where almost every molecule of hydrocarbon goes on to one big sloshing marketplace, the future is going to have a race to lock up increasingly scarce supplies of fuel, particularly what can be called "high transport grade fuel".


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