A black hole

The Financial Times published an editorial on 30th May that has been little reported in the blogosphere... I hope they dont mind if I republish it in full below. The key part is this..

Without re-rehearsing the dismal catalogue of delusion and bungling that has characterised US stewardship of Iraq, it is important to be clear about the salient facts of what is happening now. Iraq is on the brink of a sectarian war that could suck in its neighbours and make the Lebanese civil war of 1975-90 look tame by comparison.

There is really very little going on in the world right now more important than stopping this from happening.

This was written on the day that the 'No' vote in France herealded the possible start of the implosion of the European Union. The key issue for the FT, Europe, the world is Iraq. To make it more clear - if Iraq is allowed to fail and sink into a civil war we could be on the precipice of a new world war. One that will suck in the bordering countries including one member of Nato all on top of the world's oil supply.

This is a very real prospect. Why? Well let us not just trust what the FT says but look at the surrounding countries. Turkey has a large Kurdish minority that has been all but at war with the Turkish government for years. A full Kurdish state on Turkeys border well funded by oil supplies from Kirkuk would be seen as a direct threat to the very existence for Turkey. Turkish intervention in Northern Iraq will immediately draw in Iran and Syria.

To the south Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other Gulf states have sizeable Shia minorities sitting right on top of their oil wells. What if these communities wanted independence or to ally themselves with a Shia government in south Iraq?

What about the interests of world powers - if war is being fought on top Europe's and China's oil supply. How about Russia's interests in the region? One need only look at the start of the First World War to see how dangerous the current situation is.

I want to start a debate on this issue. Later I will try to look at what can be done.

Here is the full FT editorial...

LEADER: Iraq risks civil war - The past month in Iraq has witnessed such appalling carnage that most of those involved in the country's fate have either been awed into silence or chosen to obfuscate. President George W. Bush, for example, purports to believe that 600 Iraqi civilians died this month because a defeated insurgency against the US occupation is in despair. One has to wonder what the situation would look like if the insurgents were winning.

Without re-rehearsing the dismal catalogue of delusion and bungling that has characterised US stewardship of Iraq, it is important to be clear about the salient facts of what is happening now. Iraq is on the brink of a sectarian war that could suck in its neighbours and make the Lebanese civil war of 1975-90 look tame by comparison.

There is really very little going on in the world right now more important than stopping this from happening.

January's election marked a historic turning point not only for Iraq but for the region. The raw courage of the millions of Iraqis who braved the threats of revanchist ba'athists and butchering jihadis to turn out to vote has indelibly stamped the future of the Arab world. Because of their valour, no Arab tyrant is safe on his throne, whether or not he is a US client.

But the tactics of the jihadis drawn into Iraq by the US invasion have switched since the election. They want civil war between Sunni and Shia - even more than they appear to care about fighting US "crusaders" and their allies, whom they in any case blame for bringing the Shia to power. Until now, the Shia majority has kept its eye on the prize of democratic empowerment and - restrained by a clerical establishment led by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani - forsworn reprisals against Sunni provocation.

This now appears to be changing - marking arguably the most dangerous moment since the invasion of Iraq.

The good news is that a significant cross-section of Sunni notables and clerics - some with links to nationalist insurgents - has signalled its wish to join the political and constitutional process the Sunnis boycotted in January. The bad news is that the jihadi element of the insurgency is so spooked by this that it is trying to turn Iraqi streets almost literally into rivers of blood - and that the Shia are finally retaliating. Sunni leaders are beginning to turn up mangled and dead.

Exceptional measures such as the current "lockdown" of Baghdad by up to 40,000 Iraqi security forces are justified to combat this. Greater openness by the Shia victors of the elections towards the Sunni minority is also more than ever essential. But it is time too that Iraq's neighbouring Sunni rulers - watching the downtrodden Shia rise to power with undisguised horror - start helping. The US loudly alleges Syrian connivance with the Iraq insurgency. It should also tell its friends in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to stop anti-Shia agitation that risks fanning the flames of sectarian war.